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Who’s ahead in the National Polls?
One day to D-Day and we’re in a deadlock
(Oct 29 – Nov 4)
With one day left to go, the tides of the election have shifted drastically. In major swing states, 2 of them seem to have Harris in a marginal lead whereas 3 have Trump and Harris in a tie. Overall, the Vice President is leading by a marginal 0.9% lead which could shift at any given point.
Harris – 47.9%
Trump – 47.0%
Even in Election Betting Markets, the trend seems to have taken a suddent reverse with Trump’s chances dropping down to 54% (from a previous 61%) and Harris’ chances increasing to 45%. As we’re one day closer to the D-Day, it seems like the tides could shift in anyone’s favour. I guess we’ll just have to wait and hope for the best.
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7 Replies
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Trump’s Chances of Winning on the Rise (Oct 22 – Oct 28)
While among swing voter surveys, Harris does seem to be in a lead, the lead may not prove to be worthy if people don’t show up to vote. Moreover, what’s concerning is how support for the Vice President seems to be constantly declining. Last week she had a 1.8 point lead which has dropped to a 1.4 point lead among swing voters this week.
Harris – 48.1%
Trump – 46.6%Trump however seems to be enjoying the support with his chances of winning, as per Election Betting Markets continue to rise up. Currently at 61% now, a steady rise from a 60% chance last week.
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Trump’s Coming Close with Increased Chances of Winning
(Oct 14 – Oct 21)So Harris seems to be losing a lot of momentum, especially from her early days when she was almost 5 points ahead. The presidential debate did give her a boost, but that was shortlived. Now with only a 1.8 point lead, it seems like Harris could stand to lose, or win, it’s hard to say.
Harris – 48.2%
Trump – 46.4%On the other hand, Trump’s chances of winning are sky rocketing. If you are to go with the data from Election Betting Markets, Trump’s chances of winning are up to 60%.
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Harris is losing momentum but still leading against Trump
(Sep 22 – Sep 28)So Harris might be losing some momentum compared to last week’s polls. But she’s still been in the lead quite consistently. She’s been ahead in most battleground states and doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
Harris – 48%
Trump – 45%Looks like this just might be Trump’s last hurrah!
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Harris is gaining momentum against Trump
(Sep 15 – Sep 21)With the results of the Presidential Debate and Trump not wanting to go for another debate, it seems like people’s confidence in Harris is increasing by the day.
Harris – 52%
Trump – 48%Does Trump have any more Trump cards to play? Because if not then it seems like this just might be his last presidential run.
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Harris holds slight lead over Trump
(Sep 8 – Sep 14)Kamala Harris is holding a slim lead, but things are shifting as both candidates ramp up their campaigns. Voters still seem confident in Harris for now, but plenty of people are undecided as we head into some key moments on the election calendar.
Harris – 48.1%
Trump – 45.3%With Harris up by just 2.7 points, it’s still anyone’s race. Watch for next week’s update as we track any changes.
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Trump and Harris Now Neck and Neck
(Sep 1 – Sep 7)Confidence in Harris seems to be falling. A common consensus among swing voters indicates that people are not sure what Harris will do and need to know more. The polling average still has Kamala in a 2 point lead.
Trump – 47%
Harris – 49%
But this can go either way depending on the debate in Philadelphia on 10th September. Next week’s polls might give us a better picture on who’s really leading.
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Harris is leading against Trump
(Aug 25 – Aug 31)Vice President Kamala Harris has a 5 point lead over former President Donald Trump. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 4% support, and Jill Stein 1%, according to an Outward Intelligence poll of likely voters in the United States released last week.
Harris – 49%
Trump – 44%
Does Trump have any more Trump cards to play? Because if not then it seems like this just might be his last presidential run.
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